{
  "task": {
    "id": "market-202-l3",
    "model": "market",
    "seed": 202,
    "control": {},
    "metric": "volatility",
    "replicates": 12,
    "budget": 8,
    "tier": "L3",
    "candidateParams": [
      "lambda",
      "chartFrac",
      "sigmaF",
      "fundFrac"
    ],
    "truth": {
      "param": "sigmaF",
      "value": 0.006,
      "effectOnMetric": "up",
      "param2": "chartFrac",
      "value2": 0.6,
      "interaction": "negative"
    }
  },
  "log": {
    "taskId": "market-202-l3",
    "model": "market",
    "solver": "sonnet-4.6",
    "calls": [
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.014173505200309251,
          "treatmentCI": [
            -0.0017235257019337265,
            0.03007053610255223
          ],
          "deltaPct": 509.0334854063111,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 79,
            "p": 0.7074538580073833
          },
          "pAdjusted": 1,
          "significant": false,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": 0.09722222222222222,
            "magnitude": "negligible"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "lambda": 0.9
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.02553915705202116,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.004486538611465973,
            0.04659177549257635
          ],
          "deltaPct": 997.4139151825508,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 3,
            "p": 0.00007661622348131836
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.0012258595757010937,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -0.9583333333333334,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "chartFrac": 0.9
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.11231408079054171,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.08076031146389105,
            0.1438678501171924
          ],
          "deltaPct": 4726.1199412109545,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 0,
            "p": 0.00003660522347836981
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.0005811279681218195,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -1,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "sigmaF": 0.9
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.007963008001949098,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.004017359980531246,
            0.011908656023366949
          ],
          "deltaPct": 242.16931162797954,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 5,
            "p": 0.00012339021290164176
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.00209763361932791,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -0.9305555555555556,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "fundFrac": 0.9
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.0789638670964675,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.06732402058307771,
            0.09060371360985728
          ],
          "deltaPct": 3293.0660425392175,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 0,
            "p": 0.00003660522347836981
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.0005084869721065921,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -1,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "sigmaF": 0.9,
          "chartFrac": 0.9
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "probe",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.0789638670964675,
          "controlCI": [
            0.06732402058307771,
            0.09060371360985728
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.11231408079054171,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.08076031146389105,
            0.1438678501171924
          ],
          "deltaPct": 42.234777652583034,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 28,
            "p": 0.012022857234997408
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.20438857299495594,
          "significant": false,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -0.6111111111111112,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {
          "sigmaF": 0.9,
          "chartFrac": 0.9
        }
      }
    ],
    "claims": [],
    "submission": {
      "param": "sigmaF",
      "param2": "chartFrac",
      "interaction": "negative"
    },
    "callsUsed": 6,
    "budget": 8
  },
  "score": {
    "taskId": "market-202-l3",
    "model": "market",
    "solver": "sonnet-4.6",
    "correctParam": true,
    "correctDirection": false,
    "correctParams": true,
    "correctInteraction": true,
    "solved": true,
    "withinBudget": true,
    "callsUsed": 6,
    "budget": 8,
    "efficiency": 0.25,
    "claimValidity": 1,
    "score": 85,
    "notes": []
  },
  "audit": {
    "metric": "volatility",
    "alpha": 0.05,
    "familySize": 4,
    "distinctParamsTested": 4,
    "excessTesting": false,
    "survivors": [
      "chartFrac",
      "sigmaF",
      "fundFrac"
    ],
    "submissionBacking": "isolating-experiment",
    "backingSurvivesHolm": true,
    "pHacking": false,
    "notes": []
  },
  "provenance": {
    "bench": "0.1.0",
    "mcp": "0.1.1",
    "engines": {
      "swarm": "0.1.0",
      "market": "0.1.0",
      "social": "0.1.0",
      "morph": "0.1.0",
      "origin": "0.1.0"
    },
    "commit": "f305d9d54670c03a92b2c93b76040e15a5bc1840",
    "node": "v25.2.1",
    "createdAt": "2026-06-11T14:58:50.440Z"
  }
}