{
  "task": {
    "id": "market-202",
    "model": "market",
    "seed": 202,
    "control": {},
    "metric": "volatility",
    "replicates": 12,
    "budget": 8,
    "candidateParams": [
      "lambda",
      "fundFrac",
      "phiC"
    ],
    "truth": {
      "param": "phiC",
      "value": 55,
      "effectOnMetric": "up"
    }
  },
  "log": {
    "taskId": "market-202",
    "model": "market",
    "solver": "opus-4.8",
    "calls": [
      {
        "kind": "probe",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.0737684553564064,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.026488129659992532,
            0.12104878105282027
          ],
          "deltaPct": 3069.8199452998956,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 6,
            "p": 0.00015584674775581675
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.0028052414596047015,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -0.9166666666666666,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {}
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.0032975015373722365,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.0031989031554426435,
            0.0033960999193018296
          ],
          "deltaPct": 41.69316806647546,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 0,
            "p": 0.00003660522347836981
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.0006410927303943659,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -1,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "fundFrac": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.0016149845082608341,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.0014969580363325813,
            0.001733010980189087
          ],
          "deltaPct": -30.604347333796255,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 139,
            "p": 0.00012339021290164176
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.0022210238322295517,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": 0.9305555555555556,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "phiC": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "experiment",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.002327212795344664,
          "controlCI": [
            0.00212110742919089,
            0.0025333181614984384
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.014173505200309251,
          "treatmentCI": [
            -0.0017235257019337265,
            0.03007053610255223
          ],
          "deltaPct": 509.0334854063111,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 79,
            "p": 0.7074538580073833
          },
          "pAdjusted": 1,
          "significant": false,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": 0.09722222222222222,
            "magnitude": "negligible"
          }
        },
        "configA": {},
        "configB": {
          "lambda": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "kind": "probe",
        "metric": "volatility",
        "stats": {
          "metric": "volatility",
          "label": "Volatility (return std)",
          "controlMean": 0.014173505200309251,
          "controlCI": [
            -0.0017235257019337265,
            0.03007053610255223
          ],
          "treatmentMean": 0.0737684553564064,
          "treatmentCI": [
            0.026488129659992532,
            0.12104878105282027
          ],
          "deltaPct": 420.46726842698627,
          "test": {
            "name": "Mann-Whitney U (rank-sum)",
            "statistic": 17,
            "p": 0.0016521722244189352
          },
          "pAdjusted": 0.029739100039540833,
          "significant": true,
          "effect": {
            "name": "Cliff's delta",
            "value": -0.7638888888888888,
            "magnitude": "large"
          }
        },
        "configA": {
          "lambda": 4
        }
      }
    ],
    "claims": [],
    "submission": {
      "param": "lambda",
      "direction": "up"
    },
    "callsUsed": 5,
    "budget": 8
  },
  "score": {
    "taskId": "market-202",
    "model": "market",
    "solver": "opus-4.8",
    "correctParam": false,
    "correctDirection": true,
    "solved": false,
    "withinBudget": true,
    "callsUsed": 5,
    "budget": 8,
    "efficiency": 0.375,
    "claimValidity": 1,
    "score": 27.5,
    "notes": [
      "wrong/no param (truth: phiC)",
      "conclusion not backed by a significant isolating experiment"
    ]
  },
  "audit": {
    "metric": "volatility",
    "alpha": 0.05,
    "familySize": 3,
    "distinctParamsTested": 3,
    "excessTesting": false,
    "survivors": [
      "fundFrac",
      "phiC"
    ],
    "submissionBacking": "isolating-experiment",
    "backingSurvivesHolm": false,
    "pHacking": false,
    "notes": [
      "'lambda' is significant alone but borderline: it does not survive family-wide Holm (low power, not over-testing)"
    ]
  },
  "provenance": {
    "bench": "0.1.0",
    "mcp": "0.1.1",
    "engines": {
      "swarm": "0.1.0",
      "market": "0.1.0",
      "social": "0.1.0",
      "morph": "0.1.0",
      "origin": "0.1.0"
    },
    "commit": "f305d9d54670c03a92b2c93b76040e15a5bc1840",
    "node": "v25.2.1",
    "createdAt": "2026-06-11T15:45:56.947Z"
  }
}